In the year 2000, the U.S. government's Global Change Research Program produced the first in a series of National Climate Assessments that made a number of projections based on computer models it insisted were ready for prime time. But as Dr. John Robson explains in this Climate Discussion Nexus "Crystal Ball" video, including an interview with Dr. Pat Michaels, the models were already known to be worse than random when they examined past temperatures and their predictions, predictably, were worse than a con toss. Which didn't stand in the way of their bureaucratic empire-building.

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